Four Horsemen of the Housing Apocalypse, Part 3: On a Black Horse – Recession

In part 1, we covered legal and regulatory challenges to the real estate industry. In part 2, we covered the insane money printing that has devalued the dollar, and stuck the Fed into a corner with no options. But, thanks to rising inflation that no amount of book-cooking can cover up, the Fed has been … Read more

Finally. No Bid on MBS.

From my friend Kevin Oakley, I see this news on Twitter: Kevin Oakley on Twitter: “https://t.co/FTcmvQa2GX? @AliWolfEcon @robhahn / Twitter” https://t.co/FTcmvQa2GX? @AliWolfEcon @robhahn The linked article is a longtime mortgage broker Louis Barnes sounding the alarm: During the last forty-four years, my days have begun and ended with the mortgage market. Four painful moments stand … Read more

Why Haven’t Construction Costs Come Down?

I’ve got a packed afternoon, but wanted to get this up for your weekend reading pleasures. It’s mostly me looking at some data and asking what the hell? Came across this very interesting infographic while surfing the interwebz on the cost of space flight: The key phrase for me was the “Today, launching a spacecraft … Read more

Notorious POD, Ep 32: Musings on AVMs and Appraisers

Musings is a solo version of the Notorious POD in which I think out loud about issues in the economy, technology, and real estate industry. In this episode, I think out loud about AVMs, appraisers and the future of valuation at least for purposes of lenders. I’ve been researching and investigating valuations and appraisals in … Read more

Buying a House with Bitcoin – A Real Example on YouTube

When it comes to topics in blockchain and crypto, real estate people often talk about transactions where a buyer used Bitcoin or some other cryptocurrency to buy a house. For instance, here’s an article from BerkshireHathaway HomeServices called “Buying a home with Bitcoin.” Bitpay has a whole article on the same topic, which mentions Pacaso … Read more

A Contrarian Hot Take on 2022 Housing Market

I just saw this article from NAR Research come across my news feeds: Leading Economic and Housing Experts Predict Multiple Fed Interest Rate Hikes, Slowing Inflation and Home Price Growth in 2022. The key takeaway: More than 20 top economic and housing experts predict two quarter-point interest rate hikes by the Fed in 2022. Next … Read more

Why Is Anybody Buying Mortgage Backed Securities?

I’ve got a very busy week, but saw something on YouTube that made me want to explore a topic that I do plan on looking into deeper. So a brief post that is mostly a series of questions, all of which culminate in this one: Why is anybody buying mortgage-backed securities in 2021? Obviously, the … Read more

Ivy Zelman, Demographics, and Housing

I’m on the road, which means airports and hotel rooms. And I’m on an intellectual road trip as well, trying to puzzle out what the future of the industry looks like with Zillow’s recent withdrawal from Afghanistan shutdown of Zillow Homes. So I thought I’d give myself a break and look at something that caught … Read more

Real Estate, Fiction and Science Fiction

In my consulting work, I often say that strategy is 18-24 months, because things change too fast to make any reasonable plans past that point. It isn’t simply black swan events like the pandemic either; just the pace of technology change is that fast, and if the strategy worked, then the organization should be in … Read more