Over the past few weeks, there has been a flurry of posts, articles, tweets, and other expressions of… what to call them… predictions? opinions? studies? that all drive to the idea that the US housing market is either collapsing already, or about to collapse. Because the Fed, you know? Raise rates on fiat dollars, and … Read more
I’ve been writing the long Four Horsemen series, and one of the biggest issues I had to tackle was housing affordability. The federal guidelines from HUD says housing is affordable when gross costs are no more than 30% of the gross income of the residents. Since gross costs include things like utilities, property taxes, mortgage … Read more
I had originally planned on the Four Horsemen series to be five parts: the four Horsemen, plus a wrap-up laying out the consequences for the real estate industry. But as I mentioned in part 5, a couple of you have asked for a slightly medium-to-longer term post-apocalypse outlook on the industry. Once the dust settles, … Read more
At last, we come to the end of this dismal series. While it has been dismal, some of your emails and private messages have been very kind and encouraging. Dark these thoughts may be, but some of you share them and there is a comfort in knowing we’re not alone. (Update: but see below in … Read more
And when he had opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth beast say, Come and see. And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, … Read more
A friend and subscriber who has been reading my stuff messaged me to ask why I do not believe the “home prices will fall” narrative. I figured, why not let it all hang out, right? Keep in mind that I’m no economist, and not a macro investment analyst. Keep in mind that I could be … Read more
In Fortune, we get this story about 40 regional housing markets that are super overvalued where home prices might fall over the next year: Among those “overvalued” housing markets, which ones are actually likely to see home prices fall? In order, Zandi points to these “juiced-up” regional housing markets: Boise; Colorado Springs, Colo.; Las Vegas; … Read more
In part 1, we covered legal and regulatory challenges to the real estate industry. In part 2, we covered the insane money printing that has devalued the dollar, and stuck the Fed into a corner with no options. But, thanks to rising inflation that no amount of book-cooking can cover up, the Fed has been … Read more
In part 1 of this series, I outlined years of writing, thinking and speaking on the subject of legal issues and regulatory challenges facing the real estate industry. We continue our journey down dark paths with the second horseman of the housing apocalypse. Let me note right at the outset that I am not an … Read more