Writing has been very light. Who am I kidding? It’s been nonexistent. Part of it is that I’ve been very busy with projects, but the other part is that there really hasn’t been much of interest that I haven’t written about over and over before. Enjoy the silence, I figure. I break that silence because … Read more
I left out any predictions about the housing market in 2023 in my Seven Predictions post for a bunch of reasons. The most important being that it’s really kind of boring for people who are not super interested in the topic, which means just about everyone who isn’t a VIP subscriber. But now that 2023 … Read more
This will be a quick one. Just had lunch with a friend and client who has been a broker for decades. We got to talking about what we both think is headed our way in the next several quarters. Basically, doom for real estate in a variety of ways as the Fed tries its best … Read more
I have to go back to work on a number of projects, but… I had to puzzle this out with you all in public. The latest Redfin report on the housing market is… weird. The headline is “mortgage payments hit all time high” as the Fed keeps hiking rates. So the recommendation is for sellers … Read more
A quick thought today, brought on by a brief Twitter exchange that is otherwise unrelated. It is an economic law that you get more of what you subsidize, and less of what you tax. Human beings are remarkably good at responding to incentives and disincentives. So we subsidize solar power, EVs and corn — voila, … Read more
From Prof. Anthony Sanders over at Confounded Interest, one of the best housing economics blogs out there, we get this story: Miami, Tampa, Dallas and Phoenix (red states) are growing at over 30% YoY. Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Minneapolis, New York, Portland and Washington DC (blue states) are all growing at over 10% YoY. Cleveland … Read more
I’m working on a number of presentations these days, and a big chunk of them are me playing economist. I am pointedly and proudly not an economist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Actually, no, I can’t remember the last time I stayed at a Holiday Inn of any kind, … Read more
This is just a quick look-see. Thanks to Jay Parsons, an economist with RealPage, I found the RealPage 2022 Market-Rate Apartment Affordability Report. There are some interesting findings in there with the main takeaway being that market-rate (i.e., non-subsidized) rentals are doing just great: But this first-of-its-kind study into one of the largest segments of … Read more
This is a public call for help. I’m not ashamed to admit it. I spent the last month or so trying to understand the view that higher interest rates, leading to higher mortgage rates, will tame the crazy housing market. Macroeconomics being what it is — at times, I feel like it’s a mystery wrapped … Read more